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ONE SMALL THOUGHT by Prakash Gosavi

WHAT'S THE SIMILARITY BETWEEN A SIN AND A BIAS?

August 6, 2016

 

Like sin, one has to pay for one's bias too.

 

The only difference is that the law of Karma may be a little slow to catch up with you for your sin; but for the bias, you have to pay immediately--here and now!

 

The cases in point are victories of Niobrara & Zahrazan on today's card. You must have noticed I have repeatedly maintained that jockey skill matters least in 5-furlong sprints, still I tend to ignore my own opinion when it comes to 5-kg claiming apprentice riders.

 

Though Niobrara and Zahrazan were both top-rated on the MotherChart of Dynamic Ratings, and proven specialist sprinters for the 5-furlong sprint, I downgraded their chances just because they were being ridden by 5-kg claimers.

 

Now after getting slapped hard in the face, am I going to drop that bias?

 

I think not. Because this opinion (every strong opinion is a bias, so to say) has served me well over the years.

 

But of course, I have noticed something interesting which I am going to respect in the future when I wear this bias again on my sleeve.

 

That interesting fact was that both these horses received notable support in the betting ring DESPITE massive betting on one or more of their rivals!

 

So the lesson I have learnt is that if a specialist 5-furlong sprinter to be ridden by a 5-kg rookie

i) is top rated on the Dynamic Rating,

ii) AND attracts smart money,

iii) DESPITE other prime rivals receiving massive support,

then it is time to drop the bias and treat it with respect.

 

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