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©2014-19 by Prakash Gosavi

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ONE SMALL THOUGHT by Prakash Gosavi


August 14, 2016


Most Betting Plan members today were surprised when after the second race I relayed a message that we are going to wait patiently until the eighth race. Some of them even messaged and asked why. Others, who knew better, only sensed I wouldn't do it without a solid reason.


The reason was Aspen. A top rated horse in that field on the MotherChart of Dynamic Ratings, which I had tipped as first choice for the eighth race. And the call for patience was issued because the running of the second race confirmed I had not made a mistake in giving Aspen the top billing, and now was the time to try and make some decent money out of this opportunity.


Doesn't make sense? Is it because the second race was a class III race, and the eighth race was a class V race?


In fact, that's PRECISELY the reason why I was convinced Aspen's probability of winning that race just got better, after Merabella briefly flattered herself by trying to pose some challenge to winner Germanicus. Because Merabella & Aspen were two of the three horses (I am NOT naming the third horse for obvious reason) my system had picked up as "follow" horses from the opening race of the season (race# 1, won by Jordana). As you are aware, after spotting horses, we immediately "label" them, by creating what we call a "grid", which plainly means racing conditions over which we may think of playing those horses.


Here is what the grid said:

Merabella (class IV, 1200-1400m, 4y&over field)

Aspen (class V, 1600-2000m, jockey better than Kuldeep, preferably someone who has won on this track this season).


The benefit for these kind of "grids" being created in advance is that they make decision making very easy. Since Merabella was going in class III (instead of IV), over 1600m (instead of 1400 or 1200m), and was facing a 3y old in Germanicus who had raced in better company, she was tipped as third choice, whereas Aspen, fulfilling all three grid conditions listed above, was tipped as first choice.


And when Merabella, despite going over unsuitable conditions, put up a rather brave effort, momentarily trying to challenge the class III winner a furlong from home, it became obvious Aspen was not going to go down without a fight in the bottom class. And the price of 7 to 1 for this chance bet was worth the patience of three hours.


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