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ONE SMALL THOUGHT by Prakash Gosavi

TOO MUCH OF A CO-INCIDENCE

August 21, 2016

(Tap Dance, heralding in the "pattern" when winning the Dr Jagjit Singh Million at the odds of 16-1)

 

 

Once is happenstance,

Twice is co-incidence,

Third time is quirk of fate

--any more, and it stinks!

 

Well, here is some food for thought.

 

Not for you and me, but for those who run the show at RWITC.

 

Before you read further, just make sure you note some interesting facts: In all these instances, the connections (stable, owners, etc) are the same, all four were prestigious trophy races, and all four favourites (eventual losers) were from the same stable—well, almost.

 

Scene 1:

Feb 8, 2015, Mumbai

The Dr Jagjit Singh Million

 

Some smart people start laying against the favourite, The Unicorn, trained by Pesi Shroff. The Unicorn drifts from the night odds of 6/10 to 14/10 at race time. Interestingly, there are also discrete but carefully masked bets placed on Tap Dance which comes down from 20-1 to 16-1 at post time.

 

Result: Tap Dance wins, The Unicorn loses (4th).

 

Scene 2:

Aug 30, 2015, Pune

The Dr P K Sardeshmukh Maharaj Trophy

 

Some smart people start laying against the favourite, Sentimental, trained by Vishal Gaekwad. Sentimental drifts from the night odds of 7/10 to 6/4 at race time. Interestingly, there is also a massive gamble on Hedwig which is hammered down from 10-1 to 3 to 1.

 

Result: Hedwig wins, Sentimental loses (2nd).

 

Scene 3:

Feb 6, 2016, Mumbai

The Royal Challenge Sports Drink Trophy

 

Some smart people start laying against the favourite, Magnolia, trained by Vishal Gaekwad. Magnolia drifts from the night odds of 6/10 to 14/10 at race time. Interestingly, there is also a massive gamble on Daishonin which gets backed down from 7-1 to 9-2.

 

Result: Daishonin wins, Magnolia loses (2nd).

 

Scene 4:

Today (Aug 21, 2016, Pune)

The Panchshil Million

 

Some smart people start laying against the favourite, Khayyam, trained by Pesi Shroff. Khayyam drifts from the night odds of 3/1 to 6/1 at race time. Interestingly, there is also a massive gamble on Queen Credible which gets backed down from the long shot status to 9-2 to become the first favourite.

 

Result: Alas, Queen Credible loses, but true to pattern Khayyam also flops, in fact, stops in the track.

 

What went wrong? I don’t know.

 

But the “smart” people who pulled off three successful gambles in almost identical fashion (look at the “dates”, isn’t there a pattern there too?) were only right about the “loser” this time, but not the "winner".

 

Does this mean they are losing their magic touch?

 

For answer to that question we may have to wait until February 2017 (the Indian Derby weekend). So train your patience is all I can say.

 

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