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ONE SMALL THOUGHT by Prakash Gosavi

A NEVER-ENDING JOURNEY

September 13, 2016

 

 

Below, a part of my weekly mail to Syndicate members:

 

Although this was yet another profitable week, there are things that need to be shared.

 

Some of you asked me why I shied away from Altaf Hussain's Scarlet of Hope after speaking so much about her in the audio analysis of the first race on Saturday.

 

Here I will share with you the true reason.

I was all set to begin the day with her if she looked good. And good she did look!

But many other horses also looked good--one of them was Narendra Lagad's Seacaucus to be ridden by C Umesh.

I had completely discounted her even as a contender for the top spot. And when I got news from the ring she was backed down from 15 to 1 to  7 to 1, I wondered if I have missed something. Because, Lagad has a record of sending out such rabbits quite often.

 

After all, this was a bottom class race for older horses, and "Scarlet was being ridden by an apprentice who had ridden 10 of the 11 mounts out of board this season!", I reasoned (actually, I panicked), and decided to stay out. Better to err on the side of caution, that has always been our mantra.
 

Well, Scarlet of Hope won very easy, exactly as I had predicted, but because of the fear and confusion, I could not stick to my pre-race assessment, proving once again that at the end of the day one needs more of guts than brain to profit in this game.
 

Another lesson for investors (you know I like to use that word despite the downmarket image of our activity), we can never underestimate the importance of "state of mind" when taking the final call about a bet.

 

The mind, if in the throes of a particular emotion, tends to swing like a pendulum to the other extreme especially if the earlier outcome was painful, and as investor one needs to be acutely aware of this tendency of the mind and see it for what it is. I failed on that count too.
 

The "cautious" mind which missed the Scarlet Of Hope opportunity then went to the other extreme and I ignored our time-tested rule (of NOT betting any horse whose price more than doubles up for no apparent reason) and went for Costa Smeralda, though the ante post price of 60 paise touched 18/10 at race time. You know the result.
 

In the long run luck will even out, but such avoidable errors may have a greater effect on the state of our bankroll. I certainly need to be a more "centered" decision maker--if you understand what I mean.
 

Anyway, since some of you dabble in other forms of investing, like stocks, etc, I thought I will share these thoughts.

Getting to be a better decision-maker is a never-ending journey.

 

 

 

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